John Howley's Green Energy Blog

Make No Small Plans

2009-03-08T06:24:00.000-07:00

My problem with President Obama's stimulus package is that it lacks ambition.

Many experts estimate that financial institutions are holding about $4 trillion worth of bad assets, but we are quibbling over relatively small amounts in a stimulus package that will spend less than $1 trillion on the problem.

We also know that our energy infrastructure is at the breaking point. Yet the stimulus package allocates only $80 billion over a number of years for a wide range of "energy" projects, with much of that going to basic energy efficiency upgrades like replacing old boilers and insulation in public buildings. All things that should be done, and would be done anyway, but nothing that will revolutionize energy infrastructure in this country.

The problem is: We are making small plans with short-term objectives. This is no way to reinvigorate the most important economy in the world.

To understand why, let's look back at the successes of the 20th century.

Imagine what the US economy would have been like in the first half of the 20th century if we never built the railroads. Without railroads, we would have remained a predominantly agrarian economy in which most people lived their entire lives without traveling more than 50 miles from their birthplace.

That changed with the railroads. In the 25-year period between 1875 and 1900, almost 200,000 miles of new railroad tracks were built in the US. Because of this massive investment in the late 19th century, we started the 20th century with about 260,000 miles of track in the US, compared to about 280,000 miles of track in the entire rest of the world combined.

This willingness to build the largest railroad network in the world gave us a competitive advantage that helped transform the US from a mostly agrarian society to a diversified economic powerhouse during the first half of the 20th century.

Now imagine what the US economy would have been like in the second half of the 20th century if we never built a national highway system.

Beginning with planning during WWII, the national highway system has grown into 160,000 miles of roads connecting virtually every part of the continental United States -- making it the largest highway system in the world.

This massive infrastructure investment -- almost all of it funded with taxpayer money -- provided good-paying jobs for veterans returning from WWII, and it has been an essential component of our economy ever since. Do you think computers are important to the US economy? Remember that they would never have reached the store (or your home) without a truck on a highway.

This willingness to build the largest road system in the world gave us a competitive advantage that was essential to our success as the most dynamic economy in the world during the second half of the 20th century.

Now imagine what the 21st century will look like if we do not invest in new energy infrastructure.

The electric grid we rely on today is not much different than the one we began building at the turn of the century (and not much more reliable either). We use higher voltages, and we have some basic demand response programs, but our electric grid is still essentially as dumb (lacking intelligence) as it was when Nikola Tesla delivered his famous lecture on polyphase alternating currents in 1888. This grid based on a 100-year-old design is not capable of supporting the economy of the future.

We are also relying on essentially the same mix of fuels today as we did for most of the 19th and 20th centuries. Yes, we have tiny amounts of hydro, wind, solar and geothermal power in the mix, but most of our energy still comes from the same carbon-based fuels such as coal and petroleum that we relied upon even before we built railroads.

The questions we face are pretty straightforward:

Will we continue to rely on 19th century fuels and a 19th century electric grid design to power a 21st century economy?

Or will the US make the investments necessary over the next 20 years to build the largest and smartest electric grid in the world?

And will the US make the investments necessary over the next 20 years to build more renewable energy generation than the rest of the world combined?

Daniel Burnham, the Chicago architect, inspired many at the start of the 20th century with his admonition that we should "make no little plans." We need to adopt his charge today when it comes to investing in the future of energy infrastructure in the US.

Now is not the time to make small plans. We must make massive investments in our energy infrastructure starting today and continuing for a few decades. The number will be in the trillions, not the billions. That is the only way we will create jobs today. And it is the only way we will secure a future of prosperity for our children and grandchildren.

P.S. -- Here's Burnham's full quote:

"Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons [and daughters and granddaughters] are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big."

John J.P. Howley
Woodbridge, New Jersey

The Most Cost Effective Energy Solution

2008-09-11T07:24:00.000-07:00

The Department of Energy is promoting something called "trip linking." It is a very simple, even obvious idea. Instead of making 5 trips in your car to run 5 different errands, plan out your day and make just one trip with 5 stops. You will save gasoline because you will drive fewer miles (e.g., just one trip down your driveway instead of 5). You will also reduce emissions even if you drive the same distance because your car engine runs more efficiently when it is warmed up than when it repeatedly turns over from a cold start.

I heard this message on the radio several times this week. Do we really need to tell people something so simple and obvious?

YES!!

One of my company's technology partners recently had an enlightening experience with energy education and awareness. They installed a smart electric meter that allowed every employee to see their building's energy consumption on a real time basis on a computer screen. Pretty soon a lot of employees began noticing that there were distinct spikes in energy consumption throughout the day. Being curious, some employees tried to figure out what was causing the spikes.

Turns out it was the elevator. Every time someone used the elevator, the little chart on the screen jumped.

Once people realized how much electricity was being consumed by the elevator, they began to walk up and down the stairs.

Two months after simple energy consumption awareness began, the company announced that electricity consumption in the building had dropped by more than 3%. Then the fun began. Employees wondered how much electricity could be saved if they conscientiously turned off lights when not needed. And if they turned off their computers at night. Pretty soon, everyone in the building was taking little steps to reduce their energy consumption ..... and watching the results on their computer screens.

After 7 months, the company had reduced its electricity consumption by more than 14%. No huge investments in technology. A 14% reduction in energy consumption merely by making people aware of the energy they were wasting.

So, what is the most cost effective energy solution?

Awareness and education.

John Howley
Woodbridge, New Jersey

We Are The Solution

2008-04-24T08:14:00.000-07:00

Last week I gave a presentation on “Energy Efficiency Best Practices” to more than 100 CEOs of multinational corporations. The presentation began with a disclaimer. I did not intend to talk about alternative energy. I would focus, instead, on energy efficiency. On how companies can dramatically reduce their energy costs -- without changing what they do -- simply by using existing technologies to make their facilities run more efficiently.

Just to be clear, the first slide in my presentation said: “Focus on Efficiency.” Then I ended with the same slide: “Focus on Efficiency.”

What happened during the Q&A session? No one asked about energy efficiency. Instead, every one asked about alternative energy. What about electric cars? What about fuel cells? What about biofuels? What about cellulose? What about solar? What about wind?

Why were they asking about alternative energy? Because we all want to find the magic new technology that will make energy both environmentally friendly and inexpensive. Then we won’t have to do anything ourselves.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m no Luddite. In fact, I firmly believe that someday, some very smart scientists and engineers will make a major breakthrough that will eliminate our dependence on carbon-based fuels. Just in my lifetime, the microprocessor has revolutionized communications, media, data processing, medical diagnostics, and virtually every aspect of our lives. Once discovered, the same type of breakthrough in energy and power generation will relegate carbon to the same dustbin of history as the rotary telephone.

But continuing to waste energy while waiting for an alternative energy breakthrough is a bit like continuing to spend recklessly while waiting to hit the lottery. It might happen someday. Maybe not. Even if it does, who knows when.

In the meantime, we have such a simple solution…….and it is us. Simply by taking very basic steps, we can reduce our energy consumption by 20% or more without altering our lifestyles or business practices. And we can do that today with existing technologies that have very short paybacks.

So, please, a little focus on efficiency.

John Howley
Hong Kong

The Laws of Physics

2008-04-22T09:51:00.000-07:00

The first law of thermodynamics (conservation) holds that energy cannot be created or destroyed. The total amount of energy and matter in the Universe remains constant, merely changing from one form to another. Simply put, we cannot get energy from nothing.

Think about what that means for our hopes (and dreams) of a carbonless future for energy. Unless the first law of thermodynamics is disproved, we will always have to transform some form of matter or energy to get energy. If not carbon, then something else. Neutrons for nuclear plants. Food for biofuels. Land for windfarms. Silicon or some other material for solar panels.

Which leads to that other basic law. There is no free lunch.

John Howley
Manila, Philippines

The Economics of Energy Conservation (Part I)

2008-04-12T09:01:00.000-07:00

I remember watching President Jimmy Carter on television during the OPEC Oil Embargo. He was wearing his Mr. Rogers sweater, sitting in front of a fireplace, and telling the country that we all must conserve energy. His message was plain. Energy conservation means making sacrifices, like turning down the thermostat and putting on sweaters to keep warm in front of a fire.

Being fond of comfortable wool sweaters, wood fires and the notion that a little personal sacrifice could help eliminate our dependence on foreign oil, I was taken with President Carter's message. Unfortunately, President Carter's approach to energy conservation was not sustainable. You cannot heat the clean rooms in semiconductor manufacturing plants with fireplaces in the winter, nor can you cool hospital operating rooms by opening windows in the summer. Most big energy consumers -- factories, hospitals, office buildings and other commercial and industrial enterprises -- were not going to solve the energy crisis or our dependence on foreign oil by going back to a simpler time or by doing less.

We soon found out that even personal sacrifice would last only so long. Once the immediate crisis of the embargo ended, our society lost its sense of urgency about conservation. Within a few years we had discovered the joys of driving gas guzzling SUVs.

Fast forward 30 years to where we are today, the early 21st Century. Al Gore and others have focused our attention on global warming and the need to reduce carbon emissions. At the same time, we are facing another energy crisis caused by rising energy costs. Oil above $100 a barrel. Electricity rates going through the roof.

This time we are talking about energy conservation in terms of becoming more efficient. Major corporations and venture capitalists have jumped on the bandwagon, asserting that conservation is not just good for our environment, but it is also good for business. For example, the President and CEO of Wal-Mart noted in a recent interview that his company is pursuing energy efficiency because it is good business -- consistent with the company's founding principles -- to cut costs by becoming more efficient:

“We looked at what Sam Walton started and how he developed the company. It was by eliminating waste, bringing in efficiencies. And by thinking about sustainability from our standpoint, it really is about how do you take cost out, which is waste, whether it's through recycling, through less energy use in the store, through the construction techniques we're using, through the supply chain. All of those things are simply the creation of waste. We found it's consistent with the entire model we've had since Sam opened the first store.” H. Lee Scott Jr., President and CEO, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., quoted in “Waste Not”, The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2008.

Even altruistic environmentalists have made their arguments for conservation based on what is most cost effective. For example, the Canadian Chapter of the World Wildlife Federation has focused on the cost-saving benefits of energy efficiency: “Energy efficiency investments such as building retrofits are one of the lowest-cost and most effective options for reducing greenhouse emissions.” WWF-Canada Backgrounder, March 24, 2008.

How do businesspeople determine whether energy conservation measures are "cost effective"? They simply compare the financial returns available from investments in energy conservation projects with returns available from other types of investments. This requires nothing more than an analysis of (a) how long it will take for the financial savings generated by an investment in the energy conservation project to equal the cost of that investment, known as the PayBack Period; (b) how long those financial savings will continue in the future; (c) what those savings equate to in terms of a percentage return, known as the Internal Rate of Return; and (d) an adjustment for the company's cost of capital, depreciation on any equipment that is installed as part of the conservation project, and other factors.

For example, if replacing an incandescent light bulb with a compact fluorescent bulb (CFL) costs an average of $2.00 (including labor) and will result in a reduction of $2.00 per year in the cost of electricity, then the CFL pays for itself in one year and the PayBack Period is one year. If the CFL will last 10 years, then each investment of $2.00 in CFLs today will generate financial savings of $20 over the life of each new bulb. A very rough Internal Rate of Return is close to 100% because your $2.00 investment is generating 100% return ($2.00 per year). Put another way, to match the return on your investment in CFLs, you would have to invest in something else that generated almost 100% per year.

The actual Internal Rate of Return is less than 100% because you have to factor in your cost of capital -- that is, how much did it cost you to earn or borrow the original $2.00 investment -- and other factors such as depreciation of any equipment installed as part of the conservation projects. But for our purposes, it is sufficient to understand that energy efficiency investments with one-year PayBack Periods are extraordinary investments that cannot be matched by almost any other investment, at least not without taking on much more significant risks.

The Internal Rates of Return for investments with two-year and three-year PayBack Periods are also extraordinary. If an investment pays for itself within 2 years, then it is generating financial savings equal to 50% of its cost each year. And if an investment pays for itself within 3 years, then it is generating financial savings equal to 33% of its cost each year. Depending on how long the savings will last (10, 20 years or more), the cost of the company's capital, etc., investments with two-year and three-year PayBack Periods usually will generate Internal Rates of Return in the range of 30% to 45%.

Since energy efficiency investments carry very little risk (and a lot of side benefits), any energy efficiency investment that generates an Internal Rate of Return of 30% to 45% makes good business sense. It is almost impossible to get that type of return on your investment anywhere else without taking on significant risks.

The bottom line: A CFO will almost always invest in energy efficiency projects that have PayBack Periods less than three years, because Internal Rates of Return over 30% are hard to find without taking on significant risks. And a CFO is almost compelled to invest in energy efficiency projects that have PayBack Periods in the two-year range, because low-risk Internal Rates of Return over 40% are almost impossible to find.

The Internal Rate of Return for energy efficiency investments with four-year PayBack Periods are also good. A four-year PayBack Period means the investment is generating savings equal to 25% of the investment every year. Even after discounting for cost of capital, the Internal Rate of Return should be in the 15% to 20% range. This is still very good considering the relatively low risk of energy efficiency investments compared to the types of risk that must be taken to obtain returns of 15% to 20% in other investments.

In addition, energy efficiency investments generate other types of returns that make them much more valuable than pure financial investments. These side benefits include reducing carbon emissions, generating good will as a "green" company, reducing maintenance costs on equipment that now runs more efficiently, etc.

PayBack Periods longer than four years are more difficult to justify on financial considerations alone. Depending on cost of capital, a five year PayBack Period will generate an Internal Rate of Return that often is in the same range as what the company can earn by reinvesting in its own business. The energy conservation project then starts to compete with other internal capital needs. Do we conserve energy? Or do we expand our plant so we can grow into an important new market? The energy conservation project can still win out, but not on financial considerations alone.

What are the implications when companies make their energy efficiency decisions based on Internal Rates of Return? I've already gone on too long for today, so I'll save that for another blog entry. In the meantime, I look forward to your comments and questions on this primer on the economics of energy conservation.

John Howley
Hong Kong

Oil (and golf) Lessons

2008-04-02T11:15:00.001-07:00

Yesterday's plan for an afternoon of golf with Sue and Charlie ended suddenly when the lightening siren went off before we finished the second hole. Not wanting to leave Florida without playing golf, I showed up at my local course this morning hoping for an opening.

The starter got me out with a couple from Switzerland. Liz is a hospital administrator and Bruno just retired after trading oil for more than 40 years from offices in Singapore, Japan and Switzerland. Much as I dislike talking business on the golf course, this was an opportunity I could not pass up.

Here's what Bruno had to say:

JH: Do you miss trading?

BB: I never thought we would see oil over $100.

JH: How much of that is due to the weak dollar?

BB: A majority. That plus speculation. You have increased demand from places like China and India. But speculators have pushed prices past what demand can support.

JH: What about supply?

BB: There are some refinery bottlenecks, but we don't have an immediate crude shortage.

JH: What do you think about the new interest in global warming and conservation?

BB: Actually, I feel a little guilty. I spent my career helping to put all that carbon in the air.

JH: Do you think we can sustain the current interest in clean energy?

BB: I hope so. We'll see what happens when energy prices drop again.

JH: You sound pretty certain that will happen.

BB: Prices will drop suddenly when speculators realize that they have gone beyond what the fundamentals will support. Over time the dollar will get stronger too. It doesn't deserve to get stronger, but it will.

JH: How much will prices drop?

BB: That is difficult to calculate. There are too many variables. You have subjective variables like the panic of speculators caught on the wrong side of the trades, and a lot of other variables like inflation.

JH: The government statistics still show relatively low inflation numbers.

BB: The government must not buy milk or bread.

JH: When will oil prices drop?

BB: Do you think this putt will break to the right?

I took the hint. My interview was starting to distract Bruno from his game. He had been straight off the tee all morning, and now he was pushing everything to the right. Liz noticed too, and she stepped in to get Bruno focused back on golf.

She began by saying something in German that sounded a little harsh. Bruno straightened his spine. Then she switched to English to give him the most basic golf advice, but in the sweetest way. "I'll watch where the ball goes, darling," she said. "You can keep your head down."

John Howley
Orlando, Florida

Energy Efficient Business Attire

2008-03-30T09:04:00.000-07:00

One hot August day, I organized a luncheon in New York City where the President of the Philippines gave a speech to about 150 bankers and business leaders. When I say it was hot, it was a day that defined sweltering. You could see the heat waves rising from the asphalt.

Arriving early to make sure everything was ready, I found that the luncheon hall had been refrigerated (air-conditioned would be a gross understatement) to feel like a walk-in freezer. The manager explained that he had turned the air-conditioning on full blast two hours earlier to get the room so cold. He said this was his standard practice during the summer months because people are pretty hot after walking a few city blocks wearing wool suits. "Don't worry," he assured me. "They'll be so hot when they get here that the room will warm up to a reasonable temperature very quickly."

Sure enough, as 150 over-heated people in business suits started offsetting the deep freeze of air-conditioning, the room temperature reached a very comfortable equilibrium.

Precisely at the appointed hour, the President of the Philippines walked in wearing a Barong Tagalog, the official formal wear of the Philippines, over crisply pressed black pants and black dress shoes shined to military perfection. Made of pina cloth that had been hand loomed from fibers of pineapple plant leaves, the President's formal Barong Tagalog was suitable for a groom at his wedding or, more appropriately, a President's State of the Union address to the Philippine nation. At the same time, the garment's sheer, loosely fitting fabric made the President one of the most comfortably dressed people in New York City that day.

As the President gave his speech on economic policy in the Philippines, I noticed more than a few men in suits tugging at their collars or patting their brows with handkerchiefs. Apparently, they were still a bit warm despite the heavy refrigeration in the room. The President, however, looked cool and comfortable as he spoke for almost an hour and took questions from the audience.

Sometime during the speech, my thoughts turned to the role of the Barong Tagolog in energy conservation. Why do we still wear wool business suits and ties in August? Or July? Or any other time when the temperature exceeds 80 degrees? Frankly, the President looked much more formal than anyone else in the room. He was also by far the most comfortable person there. And if we had all dressed as appropriately for the weather as he did, the facility manager could have cut his air-conditioning bill at least in half that day.

Think about it. Would we turn up our thermostats so we could wear shorts and t-shirts when it is freezing outside? Then why do we continue to wear inappropriate clothing that requires us to over-cool our buildings when it is hot outside?

John Howley
Woodbridge, New Jersey